Forensic Reconstructions

Tecnobosque · Wildfire Intelligence

Reconstruct the fire. Preserve the uncertainty.

Evidence-led wildfire reconstructions separating documented facts, analytical interpretation, changing knowledge and unresolved questions.

Incident reconstruction What happened
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Evidence reconstruction How we came to know

Reconstruction architecture

A fire is more than its final statistics.

A permanent reconstruction preserves the sequence of the incident while also recording how sources, findings and uncertainty changed over time.

01

Define the incident

Establish identity, geography, dates, jurisdiction, source scope and the boundaries of the reconstruction.

02

Preserve the sources

Keep official updates, reports, observations and later findings attached to their publication time.

03

Build the event sequence

Reconstruct ignition context, spread, transitions, impacts, response and evacuation without filling gaps with invented certainty.

04

Test each claim

Separate direct observations, reported information, derived values and analytical interpretation.

05

Track changing knowledge

Preserve earlier knowledge states when later evidence changes totals, cause status or interpretation.

06

Publish the boundary

Show what the evidence supports, what remains disputed and which questions cannot currently be resolved.

Reference Grade · Gold dataset

Eaton is the first complete visual reference.

The Eaton record demonstrates how a technical cause, operational chronology and later investigation can coexist without rewriting earlier evidence.

Reference Grade

Eaton Fire 2025

A wind-driven wildfire, catastrophic community impacts and an official cause record that evolved from unresolved to a documented technical finding.

TB-WBB-USA-2025-EATON · VERSION 1.0.0 Open the permanent record →

Cause & investigation history

January
2025
Under Investigation

The incident cause remained unresolved during the operational phase.

April
2026
Undetermined

The available agency record had not yet established a final technical cause.

August
2026
Electrical

The joint investigation documented electrical arcing events as the technical cause.

Legal and evidentiary boundary. Technical cause is not criminal responsibility and is not civil liability. Tecnobosque records technical findings and their evidence history; it makes no legal determination.

Known At

Evidence without hindsight.

Known At freezes the information documented at a specific historical moment. Later findings cannot be projected backward into earlier decisions.

7 January 2025 · 21:11

Early operational picture

  • 400 acres reported
  • 0% containment
  • Cause under investigation
  • Final impacts not yet knowable
8 January 2025 · 08:32

Rapid expansion visible

  • 10,600 acres reported
  • 0% containment
  • Two civilian fatalities reported
  • Damage assessment still incomplete
Current record

Mature documented picture

  • 14,021 acres
  • 100% containment
  • 9,419 structures destroyed
  • Technical cause recorded as electrical

Evidence language

Every statement has a state.

Published information is not treated as one undifferentiated body of fact. Its evidentiary role remains visible.

Observed

Direct observation or documented measurement.

Reported

A statement attributable to an identifiable source.

Derived

A value calculated from documented inputs.

Interpreted

An analytical reading of the available evidence.

Disputed

Credible sources materially disagree.

Superseded

Replaced for current use while preserving history.

Unknown

The evidence is insufficient to establish a value.

Versioned

Material changes remain historically traceable.

Analytical boundary

What these reconstructions are—and are not.

The objective is technical understanding and a permanent evidence record, not dramatic storytelling or unsupported attribution.

Included

Incident and evidence reconstruction

Timelines, fire progression, weather, terrain, infrastructure, evacuation, official findings, contradictions and remaining uncertainty.

Included

Changing knowledge

Earlier reported values, later revisions, investigation milestones and the evidence available at particular historical moments.

Excluded

Legal responsibility

Tecnobosque does not determine criminal responsibility, civil liability, regulatory fault or individual blame.

Excluded

Artificial certainty

Missing evidence is recorded as unknown. Physically possible hypotheses are not promoted without specific supporting evidence.

When the emergency ends, the evidence should remain.

Explore the Eaton Reference Grade record or compare how different wildfire evidence problems are preserved across the Wildfire Black Box collection.