Palisades Fire 2025 — Fire Record

Permanent technical record. The Palisades Fire began on January 7, 2025, in Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles County, California. It burned 23,448 acres and was declared contained on January 31, 2025.

This record separates documented facts, changing official information and technical interpretation. It will be expanded as additional maps, reports and post-fire evidence become available.

Landsat 9 view of the Palisades Fire footprint on January 14, 2025
Palisades Fire footprint on January 14, 2025, captured by Landsat 9 OLI-2. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin, using USGS Landsat data. Source and larger image.

Incident overview

FieldDocumented value
IncidentPalisades Fire
CountryUnited States
State / countyCalifornia / Los Angeles County
StartJanuary 7, 2025, 10:30 a.m.
ContainedJanuary 31, 2025
Final area23,448 acres
LocationSoutheast of Palisades Drive, Pacific Palisades
Agency having jurisdictionLos Angeles City Fire Department
Record statusPost-fire record under development

Initial timeline

  • 10:20 a.m. — An ALERTCalifornia camera recorded the first visible smoke near Temescal Trailhead.
  • 10:30 a.m. — Official start time listed by CAL FIRE.
  • 10:38 a.m. — Los Angeles County Fire Department was notified and initiated a supporting brush response.
  • January 31. — The fire was declared contained after 24 days.

Final documented impacts

Published structure-loss totals currently differ. Los Angeles County documentation cited in this record reports 6,837 structures destroyed and 1,017 damaged. The CAL FIRE incident page, last updated on April 9, 2026 and retrieved by Tecnobosque on September 2, 2026, reports 6,845 structures destroyed and 975 damaged, with damage inspections completed for the structures within the fire footprint. Tecnobosque retains both published versions and marks the totals as disputed until their definitions or revision history can be reconciled. The difference may reflect later revisions, classification rules or dataset maintenance; the available pages do not justify choosing one explanation.

TB-ECI status — structure impacts: 58/100, Moderate, Disputed. The score reflects strong source traceability but an unresolved conflict between credible public records. It is an evidence-quality score, not a probability that either total is correct.

Weather and satellite context

A dry landscape and powerful Santa Ana winds produced extreme fire conditions across the Los Angeles region. NASA satellite imagery documented smoke from the Palisades and Eaton fires during the days following ignition.

Satellite thermal detections require cautious interpretation. Cloud, smoke, sensor resolution, observation geometry and satellite overpass timing can affect what is detected. A FIRMS hotspot indicates thermal activity within a sensor pixel; it does not mean the entire pixel burned.

Cause and changing official information

CAL FIRE’s current incident page lists the cause as arson. Earlier operational updates, including the January 19 incident report, listed the cause as under investigation. Tecnobosque records both states because preserving how official information changes over time is central to the Wildfire Black Box methodology. This page does not identify individuals or determine legal responsibility.

Evidence assessment

  • High confidence: final area, start and containment dates, location and agency jurisdiction.
  • Moderate confidence / disputed: structure-loss totals differ between credible Los Angeles County and CAL FIRE records and have not yet been reconciled.
  • High confidence: regional wind and smoke context documented by official agencies and NASA.
  • Developing: detailed spread reconstruction, evacuation chronology and post-fire causal evidence.

TB-ECI pilot scorecard

This provisional manual assessment applies Tecnobosque methodology v1.0 and TB-ECI beta 0.1. TB-ECI measures evidence quality and auditability at claim level; it is not a probability that a claim is true.

ClaimStateTB-ECIBand
Start time, final area, containment and jurisdictionReported88/100Very high
Structure damage and destruction totalsDisputed58/100Moderate
Santa Ana wind and satellite smoke contextObserved / Reported88/100Very high
Current agency cause label: arsonReported63/100Moderate
Detailed spread, evacuation and causal reconstructionInterpreted / Developing42/100Low

Read the scoring rubric, mandatory caps and revision rules.

Method and limitations

This record uses official incident pages, government reports and satellite documentation. Facts are separated from interpretation, and preliminary figures are not presented as final when later official values exist. Satellite observations support reconstruction but are not substitutes for ground-based investigation.

Primary sources

Compare another Black Box record

Compare how the same evidence states, scoring rubric and uncertainty rules are applied to a different incident: the 2023 Lahaina Fire in Maui, Hawaiʻi.

Record reviewed: September 2, 2026. Record version 1.1. TB-ECI beta 0.1 pilot. This technical record is informational and does not constitute an official investigation or legal opinion.