Bushfire case study · New South Wales, Australia · October 2013
The 2013 Blue Mountains bushfires were several incidents within a wider New South Wales emergency. Reading their records requires two distinctions: which fire a number describes, and when the assessment was made. A regional headline is not a substitute for an incident-specific timeline.
Evidence reviewed: 27 October 2026. This analysis compares NSW Rural Fire Service records and Bureau of Meteorology summaries. It does not merge fire perimeters, reconstruct property-level exposure or infer ignition causes.
Three major fires, not one perimeter
The NSW RFS district record identifies three major Blue Mountains fires: Linksview Road at Springwood, Mount York Road at Mount Victoria, and State Mine near Lithgow. It lists respective areas of 3,623, 8,476 and 55,182 hectares in its archived incident entries. [1]
These are source-specific archived values. They should remain attached to their incident names and should not be added uncritically into a supposedly definitive regional footprint. Establishing a unique combined burned area would require checking the dates, mapping methods and any overlap in the underlying spatial data.
What was known on 19 October?
An RFS release dated 19 October 2013 reports 193 properties destroyed and 109 damaged in Springwood and Winmalee, with approximately 95% of that fireground assessed. It explicitly warns that the totals could change. [2]
| Field | Recorded information | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Place | Springwood and Winmalee | Not all NSW fires. |
| Assessment date | 19 October 2013 | Not an automatically final loss count. |
| Coverage | Approximately 95% assessed | The release itself anticipates revision. |
| Reported category | Properties destroyed or damaged | Preserve the source’s terminology. |
Tecnobosque analysis: a figure can be useful evidence of what authorities had established at the time without being the final figure for every later purpose. Replacing its date or geographic scope would make the record less accurate, even if the number itself were copied correctly.
Statewide reporting answers a broader question
On 26 October, RFS described destructive fires across the Blue Mountains, Port Stephens, Central Coast, Hawkesbury and Southern Highlands. Its statement that more than 200 homes were destroyed refers to that broader emergency. [3]
That release and the 19 October local assessment are not a clean before-and-after series for one identical population. A reader cannot calculate additional Blue Mountains losses simply by subtracting one from the other. Both assessment timing and geography changed.
What weather evidence adds
The Bureau of Meteorology’s NSW monthly summary reports October 2013 statewide rainfall of 12.4 mm against a historical average of 44.4 mm, and average maximum temperatures 2.5°C above average. It identifies widespread severe bushfire activity, particularly during 17–23 October. [4]
The Sydney-area summary adds local context: Katoomba recorded its driest October on record and Springwood its driest since 1988. It also reports significant smoke pollution across the Sydney basin on 17 October. [5]
Monthly rainfall and temperature describe the background conditions. They do not establish the wind at an individual street at the moment a house ignited. Similarly, a regional smoke observation does not provide a measured indoor exposure for every household. A local reconstruction would need appropriately located, time-resolved observations.
How to compare this emergency with other fires
- Choose whether the unit is one fire, the Blue Mountains group or the statewide emergency.
- Attach a date and source to each loss assessment.
- Retain the distinction between a reported property and a specified dwelling.
- Separate weather context from direct observations of local fire behaviour.
This record preserves those distinctions rather than selecting one headline total for all purposes. Compare Tathra 2018 for revisions to damage counts and Pinery 2015 for a documented wind-change mechanism. Explore the complete fire archive.
Sources
- NSW RFS: Blue Mountains bushfire emergency archive, three incident entries.
- NSW RFS: Update — Winmalee and Springwood areas, 19 October 2013.
- NSW RFS: October 2013 fires, 26 October 2013.
- Bureau of Meteorology: NSW in October 2013, 1 November 2013.
- Bureau of Meteorology: Sydney in October 2013, 1 November 2013.