Tubbs Fire 2017: Cause, Timeline, Damage & Evidence

Incident snapshot

• Start: October 8, 2017, 9:45 p.m., as recorded by CAL FIRE.
• Origin area: off Highway 128 and Bennett Lane, Calistoga; CAL FIRE incident-page coordinates 38.60895, -122.62879.
• Footprint: 36,807 acres; Napa and Sonoma counties.
• Damage: 5,636 structures destroyed and 317 damaged, across residential, commercial and other structures.
• Human toll: 22 confirmed civilian fatalities.
• Source and scope: CAL FIRE Tubbs incident page, last updated October 25, 2019. These are Tubbs-specific totals, not totals for the wider October 2017 fire siege.

CAL FIRE’s incident database lists a containment timestamp of February 9, 2018. That administrative field must not be read as evidence that the main fire front burned continuously for 123 days; no daily progression is inferred from it here.

Fire DNA: the evidence boundary

Ignition: CAL FIRE announced on January 24, 2019 that its investigation determined the Tubbs Fire was caused by a private electrical system adjacent to a residential structure. The agency said investigators identified no related state Public Resources Code violation. The press release does not establish a precise failed component in the short public summary; avoid treating the wider October fire siege or another utility incident as the Tubbs ignition mechanism.

Exposure: The incident’s damage totals document extensive impact at the wildland–urban interface. Without a parcel-level reconstruction, this record does not assign a particular building’s loss to an ember, direct flame, radiant heat, construction feature, or evacuation decision.

Response: CAL FIRE links incident status reports and a Central LNU Complex evacuation map. The linked evacuation product covers a complex, so a map feature or order cannot automatically be attributed to the Tubbs Fire alone.

Known at the time / evolution of knowledge

1. October 8, 2017: CAL FIRE records the fire start at 9:45 p.m. near Calistoga. Immediate response information and later totals are different evidence states.
2. February 20, 2018: NIST presented preliminary field reconnaissance in Larkfield, Coffey Park and the origin area. Its slides cited a then-current 5,643 destroyed-structure figure and described rapid, patchy WUI-to-city spread, long-range spotting and complicated nighttime evacuation. NIST explicitly called this reconnaissance preliminary; its observations were local and did not cover every parcel. The slides said cause was unknown at that stage. CAL FIRE later published 5,636 destroyed structures and a cause finding. The seven-structure difference is a dated-source discrepancy, not a recalculation.
3. January 24, 2019: CAL FIRE announced the private-electrical-system cause determination after its investigation, with 36,807 acres, 5,636 structures destroyed and 22 civilian deaths. This conclusion belongs to the later investigative record.
4. October 25, 2019: CAL FIRE’s incident page shows its last update; the current page reports 317 additional damaged structures.

Why the early and later records differ

NIST's February 2018 presentation cited 5,643 destroyed structures from a contemporary CAL FIRE fact sheet. The later CAL FIRE Tubbs incident page and January 2019 cause release give 5,636. The cited materials do not explain which structures account for the difference, so this record preserves both numbers with their source dates. NIST also listed many downed power lines while describing cause as unknown; that field observation alone did not identify the ignition system. The cause determination came later from CAL FIRE's investigation.

What this case can and cannot teach

The case illustrates why origin, incident progression, structure damage, and regional siege totals require separate source lines and dates. Its scale makes it relevant to wildfire preparedness and evacuation planning, but the publicly cited material here does not support a minute-by-minute propagation model or a claim that a specific protective measure would have prevented an individual loss.

For practical household planning, prepare an evacuation kit and a cleaner-air room in advance. Check current local orders and official advice during any active incident.

Source ledger

1. CAL FIRE, Tubbs Fire (Central LNU Complex) incident record — start, location, area, damage, casualties, last-updated and database containment fields.
2. CAL FIRE, “Investigators Determine the Cause of the Tubbs Fire,” January 24, 2019 — agency press release mirrored as a PDF; cause finding and distinction from the broader fire siege. Verify against the CAL FIRE investigative report before making any more granular ignition claim.
3. NIST, preliminary Tubbs Fire reconnaissance presentation, February 20, 2018 (PDF) — field observations, 5,643 preliminary destroyed-structure count, source attribution and expressly preliminary status; not a substitute for the later CAL FIRE incident data or origin finding.

Cite this record

Tecnobosque. “Tubbs Fire (2017): what happened, what was known, and what investigators later established.” Wildfire Black Box. Evidence reviewed September 29, 2026. Permanent record: https://tecnobosque.com/tubbs-fire-2017/ .